Michigan spent millions lowering college costs. Enrollment has barely budged – Bridge Michigan

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Michigan’s rate of sending high school graduates to college has barely budged since the pandemic, despite a huge infusion of state scholarship aid that has drastically cut tuition for most.
In total, 53.4% of the class of 2024 enrolled in college, down from 62.2% in 2019 and 54.6% in 2020, according to the latest numbers, released this month.
If last fall’s enrollment equaled that of the Class of 2019, 8,800 more high school graduates would have chosen college, according to a Bridge analysis of state data. 
Enrollment in four-year colleges fell slightly, to 37% of the graduating class of 100,344 students, down from 38% in 2023, and enrollment in two-year schools rose slightly to 16.4%, up from 15.3% in 2023.
Enrollment has flatlined even as the state has poured hundreds of millions into the Michigan Achievement Scholarship, which offers up to $5,500 a year for qualifying students who attend four-year schools and up to full tuition for two-year schools, in an effort to make higher education more affordable.
The class of 2024 was the second group of graduates to benefit from the new scholarship program and an estimated $132.8 million in scholarships have been awarded, according to data from the Michigan Department of Lifelong Education, Advancement, and Potential.
State officials acknowledge that enrollment remains an issue as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s administration works to get 60% of the population holding a college degree or a certificate by 2030, an effort designed to make the state more economically competitive.
“We know cost is a barrier for students. And as we make investments that lower cost, it gives students an opportunity to have the momentum that they need to keep earning that degree,” said Michelle Richard, deputy director of higher education for the state.
“We want to see that number (enrollment) even higher,” Richard said.
Michigan ranks 34th among the 50 states in the percentage of grads with a bachelor’s degree, with 32.7% of people 25 and older having a degree. Nationwide, 36.2% have a four-year degree.
Michigan ranks ninth for most expensive average tuition and fees for in-state public university students at $14,718, according to the Education Data Initiative, but that calculation is based on costs before the Achievement Scholarship was in effect. 
College attainment is directly linked to a host of positive attributes, from better health and longer life expectancy to less joblessness and higher wages: For instance, those with bachelor degrees in Michigan make an average of $65,700 a year five years after graduating, compared to $31,900 for high school grads and are half as likely to be unemployed.
In 2022, state lawmakers approved the scholarship program, which could cost up to a half-billion dollars a year, to drive down student debt and overall college-going costs. They later expanded the scholarship program.
“What we ultimately want is to keep pulling more students into the college-going pipeline who maybe had decided it wasn’t for them, or had maybe decided that it wasn’t affordable,” Richard said. “And I think it’s too early to tell if this investment is having the impact that we really want to see.”
The scholarship pays for students to attend a community college, private nonprofit college or public university in the state. For those attending a 4-year school, a student’s financial situation is considered when determining eligibility for a scholarship. 
For the class of 2024 onward, lawmakers have committed to a tuition-free in-district community college education for students regardless of their financial situation.
There are 59,706 students who have been awarded an Achievement scholarship across the two graduating classes, according to the MiLEAP data dashboard.
The high school class of 2023 was the first group eligible to receive the scholarship. Just 53.3% of the class enrolled in college within six months of graduating. 
A Bridge analysis finds that for the class of 2024, the biggest enrollment drop happened at the community colleges and other two-year schools. 
The 16.4% of 2024 grads choosing two-year schools is well below the 23.1% in 2019, the year before the pandemic; it is a slight improvement from the 15.3% in 2023. Four-year enrollment fell in 2024, with 37% of grads choosing to enroll, down from 38% a year before and 39.1% in 2019.
Experts say it takes time for students and families to know about the scholarship and to believe it really can make a difference.
“The fact that we didn’t see this immediate, instantaneous increase in college-going in that first class, that’s not a surprise,” Richard said. “We hadn’t had the opportunity to build that momentum, and I think it’s going to continue to take us time to use this investment to combat a kind of a national narrative that really questions whether higher education is something that’s valuable in the economy.” 
Yousif Salim, 18, a recent graduate of Utica Community Schools, told Bridge Michigan that as a first-generation college student he “didn’t know anything about the whole college process,” but talking with trusted adults helped him understand his options. 
Salim said he received a letter in the mail saying he may qualify for the state scholarship. He asked his teacher about the scholarship and found out he qualified. He was awarded $5,500.
“I didn’t realize this can be this much money; I thought it was going to be like $100 to $500 towards books and stuff,” Salim said. 
Salim is a participant in the Detroit Regional Dollars for Scholars program, which organizes campus visits, provides FAFSA help and college application guidance for high school students. Those who complete the program also receive a scholarship to attend college. 
Salim is now attending University of Detroit Mercy tuition-free through a combination of that scholarship, University of Detroit Mercy grants, the Michigan Achievement Scholarship and a federal Pell Grant. He pays for books and supplies out of pocket.
Jill Marecki, a program director at the Detroit Regional Dollars for Scholars Program, told Bridge the University of Detroit Mercy worked with high school  participants one-on-one to go over students’ financial aid packages. 
College affordability is “the main deciding factor” for students considering a private school in Michigan or an out-of-state school, Marecki said.
She said data of participants shows enrollment rates are up and more students are sticking around for the second year of college, a positive trend in the so-called “persistence” rate.
This spring, the high school class of 2025 is sifting through financial aid letters and “ruling out colleges right now that are not affordable for them,” Marecki said.
For years, men have been less likely to enroll in college, across all racial and ethnic groups. But in most cases, the gender gap widened in recent years, especially at four-year schools. In the class of 2024, 42.3% of female high school grads enrolled in a four-year school, compared to 31.5% of males, a 10.8 percentage-point difference. That’s up from a 9-point gap in 2019.
Experts have said more males are choosing work over college and are able to earn more money, on average, than women without a college degree. But college grads make, on average, more than someone without a college degree, data shows.
In her recent State of the State Address, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said she will sign an executive directive to try to get more young men to go into higher education or skilled trades training through the Michigan Reconnect program. The program offers free or low-cost community college tuition to adults 25 and older who do not yet have a college degree.
“My message tonight goes out to all young people, but especially our young men. I know it’s hard to get ahead right now. But I promise you, no matter how hard life might get, there is always a way out and a way up,” Whitmer said.
“The last thing any of us wants is a generation of young men falling behind their fathers and grandfathers.”
For most districts in the state, the percentage of grads choosing college fell, with just 143 (36%) of the districts with at least 50 grads in 2019 and 2024 recording an increase in the percentage attending four-year schools last fall.
In aggregate, those districts went from 36% of grads going to a 4-year school to 40.9%. But the other districts, representing two-thirds of grads, saw the percent attending four-year schools fall from 42.4% to 36.6%.
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Just 62 (16%) of the 393 districts had an increase in the percent attending two-year schools.
Students must fill out the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, also known as the FAFSA, to be considered for the state scholarship. 
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A series of delays from the federal government last spring worried college aid officials as students and families had less time to assess whether college was in the budget. About 53% of the high school class of 2024 completed the FAFSA, according to the National College Attainment Network.
After the November election, Michigan lawmakers held a committee hearing to consider making a FAFSA completion or filling out an opt-out form a high school graduation requirement. 
Proponents of the bill said it would unlock doors and information on attending college or university, community college and some trade schools. Opponents said it’s unfair to make students fill out a form if they don’t plan to attend college and some said they were worried students will be unwilling to fill out the form or waiver in fear that it would lead to questions about their parents’ immigration status. 
The bill did not pass. 
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